E-forecasting.com and Trivago Release Online ADR Statistics for December, New Orleans Leads Nation in Profits Per Room
Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $164.79 this December, down from $176.24 in November, according to trivago hotel price indices¹ (tHPI) released today. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $357 to a low of $107 this December.
On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+2.7%) in December from a year ago, better than the previous month's reading of (+2.4%). This December, trivago online room rates in New York are falling (−10.5%) from last year to $357 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets. Boston takes the second place in December with an online room rate of $226, after an increase of (+10.8%) from a year ago. In San Francisco, the online room rate in December is growing (+7.3%) from last year to $205 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.
At the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this December is Salt Lake City with a trivago online ADR of $109 a night after a (+1.9%) change from a year ago; San Antonio with an online ADR of $109 following a (+3.8%) change; and lastly, Phoenix with an online ADR of $107 following a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $150 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, San Jose is the country's average affordable city to visit this December.
Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate hit $180.6 in December. On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago - SSA online ADR this December is down (−0.6%) from the previous month, which is lower than November's monthly change of (−0.5%). Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in December ranges from a high of (+2.8%) in New Orleans to a low of (−3.9%) in Orlando. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 7 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 18 cities.
Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are down (−0.4%) on a year-over-year basis in December, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate have gained (+2.7%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+3.2%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the previous month (November), compared to a mark of (−0.4%) a year ago (December 2012). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+8.5%) in New Orleans to a low of (−12.6%) in New York in December. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 14 cities; they are down or are flat in 11 cities.
On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 41% in December, which is higher than November's reading of 23%. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in December ranging from a high of 100% in Philadelphia to a low of 1% in Los Angeles. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in 13 cities; it is 50 or below in 12 cities.
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e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage. For more information visit www.e-forecasting.com
Founded in Düsseldorf in 2005 with operations in 39 countries, trivago is the world’s largest online hotel search site, comparing room rates from over 700,000 hotels on over 200 booking sites worldwide. Each month, more than 45 million visitors use trivago’s unique online technology, which compares 5 billion hotel deals a day - more than a trillion a year - and saves them an average of 35% per booking.
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