No Industry Recession in Sight for US Hoteliers
Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in January according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.2% in January to 131.4, following an increase of 0.3% in December. The index is set to equal 100 in 2010.
"The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 5.5% in January, down from 5.9% in December," said Maria Sogard, CEO at eforecasting.com. "When this gauge of the risk for an upcoming recession passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle. Like in the financial sector, we are looking for a solid expansion in the months ahead," Maria added.
Seven of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in January: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; New Orders; Housing Activity and Vacation Barometer. Two indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in January: Yield Curve and Oil Prices.
"The six month annualized smoothed growth rate of HIL, a long-range growth predictive analytic which confirms the underlying cyclical business trend for US hoteliers, posted a positive rate of 3.2% in January, compared to a 30-year average annual growth rate of 2%," said Evangelos Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and series editor for predictive analytics databases at e-forecasting .com."When the six month growth in HIL enters a near zero to negative range for 2-4 consecutive months, the industry will go to recession," and "the recent reading of this hotel predictive analytic clearly implies above long-term growth in the rest of 2017 for US hoteliers. Similar findings we get for major destinations like New York, San Diego and Miami," Evangelos added.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what's next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients' competitive advantage.
The US hotel industry leading indicator, or U.S.-HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, U.S.-HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. U.S.-HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry. Monthly HIL indicators and predictive analytics are also available for the following countries: Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom
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