Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S.

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Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S.

Packaged Facts
8/1/2010
150 Pages

Abstract:
The recession is reshaping how consumers interact with the restaurant industry, and the breakfast daypart is no exception: value pricing remains at the forefront of menu strategies, as growing guest checks often takes a backseat to generating guest traffic. However, unlike the lunch and dinner dayparts, breakfast benefits from long-term untapped guest traffic potential, and it can generate healthy margins, factors that are drawing major new players into the market.

Packaged Facts' Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market estimates that breakfast daypart restaurant sales reached $37.2 billion in 2009, and forecasts that they will reach $37.0 billion in 2010 and $37.7 billion in 2011. While these figures may appear tepid at first glance, when viewed against the backdrop of lower overall restaurant sales, the breakfast daypart has fared relatively well, taking share from lunch and dinner. In the final analysis, we believe that near-term challenges will give way to long-term opportunity.

Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides unique insights into consumers' evolving relationship with the breakfast daypart, helping restaurant operators position their brands-and menus-for consumers today and tomorrow.

Highlights of the study include:

Directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts' proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which assesses restaurant breakfast users current and planned restaurant-related behavior;
Proprietary analysis of average meal spend by restaurant type and by daypart, with a focus on the breakfast daypart, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages;
"Share of Stomach" sales analysis that trends limited-service and full-service sales by daypart, and provides in-depth spending patterns for the breakfast daypart by region, income, and race/ethnicity (analysis includes comparisons to food-at-home spending);
Meal "pricing threshold" analysis: $3, $5, and $10 consumer-imposed breakfast spend limits;
Restaurant and menu selection analysis, driven by our proprietary consumer survey results;
A custom "demographic drilldown" on frequent coffee drinkers;
Industry-leading restaurant brand analyses of top restaurant breakfast players, including 2010-2011 breakfast strategy and demographic analysis according to "core customers," low- and high-frequency guest traffic, and "food lifestyle" segmentation;
Thorough, investment-grade macroeconomic analysis that helps industry participants understand current consumer restaurant spending behavior.

Themes and topics covered in the report also include:

Breakfast daypart market size and forecast, including limited-service and full-service restaurant segments;
Value, convenience, menu item, and health innovations, strategies and trends
Restaurant usage by daypart, according to restaurant segment (coffeehouse, fast food restaurant, smoothie shop, family restaurant, casual restaurant, fine dining, convenience store, and grocery store)
Breakfast value menus and meal bundles
The importance of who accompanies the breakfast restaurant user to dine in and pick up a meal
Importance of health-related factors to the purchase decision, including food advertised as all-natural and healthy and calorie/nutrition information.

Data Methodology

Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:

Proprietary company interviews
Proprietary consumer surveys
The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study
The U.S. Census Bureau
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey
Company presentations
Trade associations and trade magazines
Academic journals
Industry conferences
Restaurant menus

Table of Contents:

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis: Restaurant sales show life, but we believe positive news is transitory; Macroeconomic factors affecting restaurant sales
Chapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker: Eating breakfast at home had significant traction; Restaurant usage and usage frequency; Restaurant breakfast use
Chapter 4: Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis: Market size and overview; Restaurants sales trends by daypart; Daypart meal spend analysis
Chapter 5: Breakfast Trends, Innovations & Strategies: Fast food/QSR pushes breakfast value envelope; Family restaurants push everyday value; Convenience trends; I said, “Coffee!”; Sandwiches rule the breakfast menu; Health on menu
Chapter 6: Breakfast Restaurant Selection Analysis: Breakfast restaurant selection influencers; Restaurant selection: convenience influencers; Restaurant selection: breakfast menu item influencers; Restaurant selection: breakfast cost threshold influencers; Restaurant selection: breakfast dinein partner influencers; Restaurant selection: breakfast takeout partner influencers
Chapter 7: Breakfast Menu Selection Analysis: Menu selection influencers, by daypart; Breakfast restaurant menu selection influencers, by demographic
Chapter 8: Frequent Coffee Drinkers: Custom Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown: Frequent coffee drinkers; Importance of breakfast to frequent coffee drinkers; Restaurant types visited by frequent coffee drinkers; Restaurant selection factors, mean restaurant use and average spend
Chapter 9: Breakfast on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis: McDonald’s; Burger King; Wendy’s; Starbucks; Bob Evans; Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.; Denny’s; Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts

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