Hotels - International

Hotels - International

Abstract:

Travel and Tourism Analyst is a series of insightful, informative reports on specialised areas of the tourism industry.

Each report offers an objective and detailed study covering one of the following five sectors:

• Accommodation - everything from luxury hotels to 'glamping'
• Transport - from air travel and car hire to the cruise industry, rail and coach travel
• Niche Markets - key emerging or established sectors of the industry eg ecotourism, festival tourism
• Outbound Markets - detailed profiles of the world's tourism origin countries
• Technology - the evolution of the industry online and new technological developments

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

Key findings

DEFINITIONS

Hotel companies

Abbreviations

DATA SOURCES

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The risk of a ‘double-dip’

Commodity prices on the rise again

Figure 1: Forecasted GDP growth by region and major country, 2007-10

Outlook for interest rates

Figure 2: Interest rate trend and forecast, 2007-10

Outlook for exchange rates

Figure 3: Nominal exchange rates (in relation to the US dollar), 2007-10

Outlook for spending on travel and tourism to 2019

Figure 4: Travel and tourism expenditure worldwide, 2009-19

HOTEL CAPACITY BY REGION

Figure 5: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments worldwide, 2003-08

Figure 6: Hotel capacity worldwide, 2009

AFRICA

Figure 7: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected African countries, 2003-07

Pipeline

Figure 8: Trend in African hotel pipeline, 2008-09

South Africa

AMERICAS

Caribbean

Figure 9: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Caribbean destinations, 2003-07

Pipeline

Figure 10: Hotel construction pipeline in selected Caribbean countries, 2008

Central & South America

Figure 11: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Latin American countries, 2003-07

An acceleration in capacity growth over 2008-11

Construction pipeline down 27% from peak

Argentina

Figure 12: Number of tourist establishments in Argentina, by region, June 2009

Figure 13: Number of rooms in tourist accommodation in Argentina, by region, June 2009

Brazil

Figure 14: Hotels affiliated to the ABIH, by state, 2007

Figure 15: Room capacity of hotels affiliated to the ABIH, by state, ranked by number of rooms, 2007

North America

Canada

Figure 16: Canadian hotel capacity/pipeline, by chain-scale segment, June 2008 versus June 2009

Figure 17: Capacity breakdown/supply and demand trends for quality hotels, by major Canadian city and province, YTD July 2009

Mexico

Figure 18: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Mexico, 2002-07

Figure 19: Hotel capacity in Mexico, by grade, 2006

US

Figure 20: US hotels volume 2003-08

Figure 21: US hotel room capacity breakdown, by class, type of hotel and size, 31 December 2008

Figure 22: Hotel room pipeline in the US broken down, by stage of development, August 2008 versus August 2009

Outlook to 2011

Growth held back by lack of financing

Cancellations at a record high

Pipeline overview

Figure 23: Supply growth in the US hotel market, 2006-11

ASIA-PACIFIC

Australia

Figure 24: Trend in Australian hotel capacity, December 2007-June 2009

China

Figure 25: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in China, 2002-07

Pipeline

Hong Kong

Figure 26: Hong Kong hotel room supply, 2008-13

Macao

Figure 27: Macao’s hotel capacity, 2008-09

Japan

Figure 28: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Japan, 2003-07

Thailand

Figure 29: Thai hotel and guesthouse capacity, by size, 2006 and 2008

Other East Asian countries

Figure 30: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected East Asian countries, 2003-07

South Asia

India

Figure 31: Trend in Indian hotel capacity, 2004-09

Figure 32: Indian hotels, by grade, 2008

Figure 33: Existing and proposed new branded hotel room capacity projected to open over the period 2009-13, by major urban market and by market segment

Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Figure 34: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, 2003-07

EUROPE

Figure 35: Chain hotel capacity in the 27 EU countries, by star grade, 2008 and 2009

Pipeline

Figure 36: Trend in European hotel pipeline, 2008-09

Alpine region

Figure 37: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Austria and Switzerland, 2003-07

Switzerland

Figure 38: Hotels and health spas according to size of establishment, 2008

Figure 39: Swiss hotel and cure establishment, by major canton, 2008

Benelux

Figure 40: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Belgium and the Netherlands, 2003-07

Eastern Europe

Figure 41: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Eastern European countries, 2003-07

Eastern Mediterranean

Figure 42: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 2003-07

France

Figure 43: French hotels, by grade, location and affiliation at 1 January 2008

Figure 44: French hotel rooms, by grade, location and affiliation at 1 January 2008

Germany

Figure 45: Breakdown of registered lodging capacity in Germany, July 2008

Italy

Figure 46: Trend in Italy’s hotel capacity, 2004-07

Figure 47: Italian hotel capacity, by grade, 2007

Nordic area

Figure 48: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Nordic countries, 2003-06

Portugal

Figure 49: Portugal’s hotel capacity, by region and as a proportion of total tourist accommodation, 31 July 2007

Spain

Figure 50: Breakdown of available hotel capacity, by grade, September 2007 and September 2009

Figure 51: Spanish lodging capacity, by principal region, September 2009

UK

Figure 52: Number of hotels and similar establishments in the UK, 2004-09

London accommodation supply

Figure 53: London hotel supply change, by grade, 2002-06

MIDDLE EAST

Figure 54: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Middle Eastern countries, 2003-06

Pipeline

Figure 55: Trend in Middle East hotel pipeline, 2009

THE TOP TEN CHAINS WORLDWIDE

Figure 56: The ten biggest branded hotel chain management and franchise companies worldwide, 2009

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP

Figure 57: IHG’s different business model characteristics, 2009

Hotels by region, brand and business model

Americas

Figure 58: The Americas’ hotel capacity, by business model at end 2008

Figure 59: The Americas’ hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Figure 60: Europe, Middle East and Africa hotel capacity, by business model at end 2008

Figure 61: Europe, Middle East and Africa hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008

Asia Pacific

Figure 62: Asia-Pacific hotel capacity by business model at end 2008

Figure 63: Asia-Pacific hotel capacity and pipeline, by brand at end 2008

WYNDHAM

Only 26% of EBITDA comes from hotels

Franchise structure

Figure 64: Wyndham Worldwide’s hotel capacity and performance, by geographical region, 31 December

2008

Wyndham’s hotel brands

Wyndham Hotels and Resorts

Wingate by Wyndham

Ramada Worldwide

Baymont Franchise Systems

Days Inns Worldwide

Super 8 Worldwide

Microtel Inns & Suites

Howard Johnson International

Hawthorn Suites

Travelodge Hotels

Knights Franchise Systems

Figure 65: Wyndham Worldwide’s hotel capacity and performance, by brand, 31 December 2008

Figure 66: Competitive landscape for Wyndham’s brands, 2009

Hawthorn Suites repositioned

Ramada expands in Canada

20 Ramada Encores planned for South Korea

Ramada and Days Inn expanding in Japan

Ramada to be Moldova’s first internationally branded hotel

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL

Figure 67: Marriott’s hotel capacity, by brand and business model, 2009

Marriott to add 770 hotels

A halt to timeshare development

A permanent exit from luxury residence development

But plans to return to timeshare eventually

HILTON

Hilton’s new mid-market extended-stay brand

Hilton Garden Inn targeting 60 new hotels in 2009

A focus on international expansion in 2010

Figure 68: Hilton Garden Inns scheduled to open outside the US in late 2009 and 2010

Canada a hotbed of growth

Growth through conversions

Hilton expanding in South America

Brand focus

Hampton brand adapted for local market

Current pipeline

New deals

The Denizen that wasn’t

The return of documents triggered the lawsuit

Federal grand jury investigation

ACCOR

Accor hotel brands

Standardised versus non-standardised

Extended stay

Adagio set to quadruple its room count?

Figure 69: Structure of Accor’s brand portfolio, 2009

Luxury and upscale

Sofitel legend

So by Sofitel

An objective of 250 hotels

Pullman targets business travellers

Pullman guests needn’t bring their laptops

MGalley, ‘The art of staying’

Midscale

Mercure

Suitehotel

Economy

Ibis

all seasons

Etap Hotel, Formule 1 & F1

Motel 6

A new build prototype for Motel 6

Studio 6

Figure 70: Accor’s hotel portfolio, by brand and geographical location, 31 December 2008

Accor’s Brazilian partner

A strategic partnership

Mercure’s Asian expansion

Accor’s expansion in Indonesia

Accor has big plans for India

Ibis

Novotel

Sofitel

Aerocity

Lavasa

InterGlobe Hotels, Accor’s Indian partner

Pullman brand targeted

Expansion plan in Middle East

Accor is reducing its ownership of hotels

158 Formule 1s sold

Figure 71: Hotel portfolio, by ownership structure and brand at 31 December 2008

Accor to become pure-play hotel company

CHOICE HOTELS

Choice brands

Cambria Suites

Ascend Collection

Comfort Inn

Sleep Inn

Clarion

Quality

MainStay Suites

Suburban Extended Stay Hotel

Econo Lodge

Rodeway Inn

Choice’s US hotel portfolio

Choice’s CRS generate a third of franchisee room revenues

Figure 72: Choice’s US franchise system, 2004-08

70% of Choice properties are conversions

Figure 73: Capacity and performance, by Choice brand in the US, 2004-08

Growth focus by brand

Figure 74: Growth in Choice properties in the US, by brand and broken down between conversions and new-builds, 2007-08

International operations

Only 26,000 loyalty programme members in Europe

Over 1,000 corporate contracts signed in 2009

Brands targeted for expansion

Choice’s international portfolio

Figure 75: Choice’s international franchise system, 2004-08

Other international relationships

Figure 76: Choice’s ex-US hotel portfolio, by brand, 2008

STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS

St Regis and the Luxury Collection

W

Westin

Le Méridien

Sheraton

Four Points

Figure 77: Distinction between Sheraton and Four points, 2009

Aloft

Element

Figure 78: Starwood’s lodging capacity, by brand and type, 31 December 2008

Half of capacity still in North America

Figure 79: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by region, 31 December 2008

The move to ‘asset-light’

Figure 80: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by type of business model, 31 December 2008

The move to fee-based earnings

Figure 81: Source of Starwood’s EBITDA, by business model, 2004-08

Starwood’s lodging portfolio by brand, region and business model

Figure 82: Starwood’s hotel portfolio, by brand, region and business model, 30 June 2009

90,000 rooms in the pipeline

Starwood signs 50 new deals YTD in 2009

Starwood to double China presence by 2012

CARLSON/REZIDOR

Carlson’s hotel brands

Regent Hotels & Resorts

Radisson

Park Plaza

Country Inns & Suites

Park Inn

Carlson’s lodging portfolio by brand, region and business model

Figure 83: Carlson’s hotel portfolio, by brand, region and business model, October 2009

Carlson signed 23 deals in Q1/2009

Radisson Blu

Country Inns & Suites

Park Inn

Carlson plans to double China presence in three years

Second- and third-tier cities in focus

Rezidor

Leases and management contracts

Figure 84: Rezidor hotels in operation, by region, 30 June 2008/09

Figure 85: Rezidor rooms in operation, by region, 30 June 2008/009

Strong growth even in a recession

Figure 86: Rezidor hotels and rooms in development, by brand and region at 30 June 2009

11 new contracts signed in Q2/2009

Figure 87: Rezidor’s business development, Q2/ & H1/2009

HYATT

Hyatt’s brand portfolio

Park Hyatt

Grand Hyatt

Hyatt Regency

Hyatt Summerfield Suites

Hyatt Place

Andaz

Figure 88: Hyatt’s hotel portfolio, by brand and region, 2009

Hyatt also in the timeshare business

Hyatt has gone public

Hyatt’s revenue down 19% in first-half 2009

Pritzker family infighting a risk factor?

TUI HOTELS & RESORTS

Figure 89: TUI Hotels & Resorts portfolio, 31 December 2008

RIU

Classic

ClubHotel

Palace

Luca

1,000 rooms to open in Cuba

Grupotel

Robinson

Iberotel

Grecotel

Magic Life

Sol Y Mar

Jaz Hotels, Resorts & Cruises

Dorfhotels

‘Aqi’, a new lifestyle leisure budget brand

Sensimar - TUI’s new hotel concept

THE TEN BIGGEST BRANDS WORLDWIDE

Figure 90: The ten biggest hotel brands worldwide, ranked by number of rooms, 2009

GEOGRAPHICAL SPREAD

Expansion into the BRICs

Figure 91: Top ten hotel, ranked by the number of countries in which they are present, 2009

THE TEN BIGGEST CONSORTIA WORLDWIDE

Figure 92: The ten biggest consortia worldwide, end 2008

The two major consortia: Utell/Unirez and Best Western

Best Western

Figure 93: Additional service features required of Best Western Premier hotels, 2009

HOTEL PERFORMANCE

Figure 94: Hotel performance, by region, 2008 versus 2009

ASIA PACIFIC

Oversupply in the major urban markets

Beijing suffering an Olympic hangover

Will the Shanghai 2010 World Expo make a difference?

Secondary cities faring better

Figure 95: Hotel performance in Asia Pacific, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009

Japan doing better than most

Luxury under pressure

Supply has grown in Tokyo

To cut or not to cut

AMERICAS

Figure 96: Hotel performance in the Americas, by selected country/major local market, 2008 versus 2009

US rates down 17% in H1/2009

Vegas edges out New York

EUROPE

Figure 97: Hotel performance in Europe, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009

Germany outperforming

Figure 98: Hotel performance, by major German city, 2008 versus 2009

Growing leisure trade

Central & Eastern Europe

Bratislava

Bucharest

Budapest

Prague

Vienna

Warsaw

Supply finally catching up with demand in Russia

Figure 99: Hotel performance in Moscow and St Petersburg, 2008 versus 2009

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Figure 100: Hotel performance in Middle East/Africa, by selected country and major local market, 2008 versus 2009

Dubai RevPAR to drop by at least 25%

Falling hotel values

Hotel values down 50% in the US

Hotel values down by between 20% and 60% in Europe

‘Cap rates’ soaring

Falling revenues

The liquidity squeeze

Mostly small deals

Leases, profit guarantees and crashing multiples

Banks have retrenched

Position in the property market

HOTEL CHAIN AND PROPERTY MANAGEMENT, RESTRUCTURING, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

FINANCIAL DISTRESS

Three major chains in default

Golden Tulip declares voluntary bankruptcy

Tripped up by lease contracts?

Golden Tulip was a management buyout

The bankruptcy’s second stage

Golden Tulip acquired by Starwood Capital

Golden Tulip complements Starwood Capital’s portfolio

Looking to the future

15% growth is targeted

Extended Stay Hotels in Chapter 11

Extended Stay financed by CMBS

Senior debt holders offered a new package

No plans to shrink capacity

Red Roof Inn defaults on US$367-million mortgage debt

Hotel mortgages jeopardise CMBS ratings in the US

1,060 distressed hotels in the US

CMBS contain 5-15% of hotel debt

Huge wave of maturities in 2010

Lenders do not really want to foreclose

Industry close to ‘capitulation’

Defaults up 125% in California

Recently financed hotels particularly vulnerable

St Regis Monarch Beach foreclosed

Bay Area hotels hit hard

US$2.8 billion invested in 2005-07

More defaults to follow

Luxury hotels vulnerable

The vultures are circling

Bargains are cropping up

alltours buying hotels

A global phenomenon?

Bulgaria - 300 hotels into foreclosure?

Norway - 25 hotels bankrupt

TRENDS IN DISTRIBUTION

Figure 101: Breakdown of online reservations, by channel for the overall hotel industry in the US, 2003-10

TREND IN MAJOR CHAIN DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS

Figure 102: Share of bookings, by CRS channel for 30 major chains worldwide, 2006-09

Figure 103: Internet source breakdown for major hotel brands, 2006-09

THE ‘MERCHANT MODEL’

How does the MM work?

Inventory management

MM conditions

Figure 104: Typical merchant model conditions for major online travel agents, 2009

Is Expedia trying to squeeze hoteliers?

Expedia pulled Choice’s inventory

Expedia accounts for 3% of Choice bookings

‘Take it or leave it’

Choice’s action plan

Finally an agreement in the last hour

Best Western voices support for Choice

Hotels the ‘Golden Goose’ of the OTAs

Revenue from air travel drying up

Hotels generate 60% of OTA fees

Dynamic packaging

Other revenue sources of minor importance

The bottom line

Small groups and independents particularly vulnerable

Trends in spending by hotels on web-marketing

The Third Benchmark Survey on Hotel Internet Marketing

Key findings

Sources of bookings

Budgeting for hotel Internet marketing in a recession

How money spent is correlated to expected return

Figure 105: Breakdown of Internet marketing expenditure, 2006-09

Figure 106: What hoteliers believe are the highest return Internet marketing strategies, 2007-09

Outlook for social media

Figure 107: Web 2.0 initiatives planned for 2009 compared to 2008

HOTELS CAN TWEET TOO

Promotion through wacky offers

A steep discount, but no bed

‘Retweeting’ can spread the word fast

A mass communication tool

Many uses

Soliciting customer advice

Follow customers’ opinions in real time

@HyattConcierge

The bottom line?

SPAS AND WELLNESS

Figure 108: Summary of key hotel spa benchmark ratios, by major region, 2008

AMERICAN SPAS MOST EFFICIENT

38% of hotel spa visits from non-residents

Luxury hotel spa trends

Average prices rose by 25% in 18 months

Retail doing better, however

Salon services trending down

Room rate followed spa revenue trend

Marriott launches 'mini-treatments'

So SPA at Sofitel London St James

So SPA at Sofitel Marseille Vieux Port

Six more openings on the drawing board

WHAT NEXT?

A MURKY OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS TRAVEL

LEISURE LEADS THE WAY

US REVPAR TO GROW AGAIN ONLY IN 2011

2011 RevPAR growth seen at 7.3%

LUXURY TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT

Figure 109: Forecasted year-on-year percentage change in RevPAR, by US hotel chain scale, 2009-10

MIDSCALE W/O F & B RESISTING BEST

WILL HILTON BE BROKEN UP?

MORE CONSOLIDATION AHEAD?

NH acquires Hesperia

INDEX TO TTI DESTINATION REPORTS

Country reports

City reports

INDEX TO TRAVEL & TOURISM ANALYST

Index grouped by geographic area

SPECIAL REPORTS INDEX

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

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